This is what to see in the last full week of the presidential campaign

NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty reigns as we enter the final full week of the 2024 campaign with Democrats. Kamala Harris and republican donald trump caught in a fiercely competitive presidential race. What happens in the coming days will be essential to decide the winner.

Here’s what we’re seeing this week:

Can Trump stay on message (relatively speaking)?

Even before the week began, Trump’s campaign was at risk of being sidetracked by controversy. Instead, a rally at New York City’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday night that was supposed to serve as a closing message was overshadowed by racist insultsincluding a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

And when there are eight days left Election dayHistory suggests that Trump is virtually certain to say or do something more controversial down the stretch. The only question is whether he will break through.

If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump can’t help it. He has been using authoritarian-style rhetoric in recent days to suggest that his Democratic opponents, whom he calls “ the enemy within”, are more dangerous to the nation than the threat posed by Russia and China.

Democrats will scour every Trump interview and public appearance for something similar to exploit. There are also multiple ongoing criminal investigations into Trumpwho has already been convicted of 34 felonies, that could reveal new information.

However, Democrats are the first to admit that voters’ opinion of Trump is so hardened that it would take something truly surprising to change the course of the election.

However, there is precedent for a last-week wonder. Remember, it was October 28, 2016, when former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress indicating that federal investigators became aware of new emails relevant to the investigation into the use of a private email server by Hillary Clinton.

Will Harris’ final message tap into Democrats’ anxiety?

It would be an understatement to describe Democrats as anxious as Election Day approaches. But there was a deliberate effort by Harris’ senior team over the weekend to project optimism to help temper fear.

Harris’ senior adviser, Jen O’Malley Dillon, predicted victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We’re confident we’re going to win this,” she said. “We are seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. “This will be a close race and our campaign is exactly where we want to be.”

Harris will try to further ease Democratic anxiety on Tuesday when she delivers his “final argument” at the Ellipse, the same location near the White House where Trump spoke on January 6, 2021, shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.

Harris is expected to focus her comments on the danger Trump poses to American democracy. In recent days he has called his Republican rival a “fascist.” And she was joined by an unlikely ally, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly, who also recently described Trump as a fascist.

But she is also expected to address broader issues, encouraging voters to look behind her at the White House and imagine who will be sitting at the Resolute Desk at a moment of great importance. Their goal is to make clear what is at stake in the Nov. 5 election for undecided voters, especially moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Trump’s divisive leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris’ team is betting that there are a significant number of moderates who can still be persuaded, Progressive Democrats are worried has not focused enough on economic issues in the final days of the campaign.

We have learned that democratic anxiety can be a reality.

Where will they go?

The candidates’ shifting travel schedules will tell us a lot about which battlegrounds will matter most on Election Day.

Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are competing aggressively in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. They are the three states of the so-called “Blue Wall” (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

However, from a political perspective, not all seven are equal.

Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which may be the biggest prize of the election. Harris is scheduled to go to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, he plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday only. He heads to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.

What do we know about Trump’s agenda? He is scheduled to host at least one rally every day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday again in Wisconsin and Saturday in Virginia.

But as a reminder, these timelines are likely to change based on intelligence from campaigns on the ground.

Will the rise in early voting continue?

More than 41 million votes have already been cast in national elections. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but at least so far, Republicans are participating at a much higher rate than in the past.

The question: will it last?

Trump, of course, has for years encouraged his supporters to vote only in person on Election Day. The practice put the Republican Party at a significant disadvantage. He largely changed course in recent months as he and his party recognized the obvious benefit of being able to cast their votes as early as possible.

Due to Republican involvement, early participation was breaking records last week in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

But with the Republican Party more focused on “election integrity” than a traditional get-out-the-vote operation, it’s unclear whether the surge in Republican early voting will continue. Democrats hope not.

To what extent will Trump work to undermine the election results?

History may one day decide that the most significant thing Trump said in the final days of the 2024 election is what many voters hardly notice anymore: his persistent warnings that this election is rigged against him.

In fact, as Election Day approaches, Trump increasingly warns his supporters that he will lose on November 5 only if his political opponents cheat. In fact, such statements have no basis. There was no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, and there is also no evidence that Trump’s adversaries can or will rig this election against him.

Still, Trump’s unfounded warnings make an already tense and violent election season even more tense. and there is real threats that foreign adversaries (especially Russia, China and Iran) will meddle in the elections.

At the same time, the The Republican National Committee has invested tens of millions of dollars in an operation to mobilize thousands of polling place supervisors, poll workers and lawyers to serve as guardians of “election integrity.” Democrats worry the effort could lead to harassment of poll workers and undermine confidence in voting.

Both sides are aggressive preparing for long legal battles It doesn’t matter who wins.

Will the wars in the Middle East change the focus?

American presidential elections are rarely determined by foreign affairs, but wars in the Middle East have escalated just as millions of voters prepare to cast their ballots.

It is not yet clear how Iran will respond to Israel’s decision. unusually public airstrikes Across Iran on Friday, but Israel did not target oil or nuclear sites, a sign that a much more serious escalation could have been avoided. In another indication that this conflict may not get out of control, the Islamic Republic insisted that the attacks caused only “limited damage” and Iranian state media messages downplayed the attacks.

Whether the region moves toward an all-out regional war or remains stable at an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence could also determine the extent to which the Middle East conflict influences U.S. elections.

The issue has been especially difficult for Harris to navigate as she simultaneously promises to support Israel and offers empathy for the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. The Democratic vice president continues facing intense pressure from his party’s progressive base, which has been extremely critical of Israel.