A year of attacks by Myanmar’s resistance has brought the military regime to the brink

BANGKOK (AP) — Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in the northeast Burma a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Before the offensive, military control seemed firmly rooted in its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and bolstered with material support from Russia and China. But today it is increasingly on the defensive, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders recognize that it will be difficult to recover.

The military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, leading to intensified fighting with long-established armed groups associated with Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups, and sparking the formation of new pro-democracy militias.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named for its start on October 27, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to avoid major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 sparked coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups (the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, collectively known as the Three Alliance). Brotherhoods) and managed to capture cities quickly. and invaded military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later the Arakan Army launched attacks in his western home state of Rakhineand other militia groups and PDFs across the country have since joined.

A year into the offensive, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast expanse of territory stretching from Rakhine state in the west, across the north and then south to Kayah and Kayin states to along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw has retreated centrally around the capital, Naypyidaw, and the largest city, Yangon.

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by the arrival of some 30,000 new soldiers since then. activating compulsory military service in February and its continued and complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city in the center of the country.

Faced with threats from across the country, “there does not appear to be any viable route for the military to regain some of the territory they have lost,” said Connor Macdonald of the advocacy group the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar.

“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to move troops and then it leaves itself vulnerable in other parts,” he said.

As the military has faced setbacks in ground fighting, it has increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes. % in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027. offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately attacking civilians in retaliation for the alleged support for the resistance militias, something he denies.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar in total, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN.

As the front expanded, militias advanced outside their own ethnic areas, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January took the Chin town of Paletwa, which has led to some friction between groups, foreshadowing Possible future problems if the Tatmadaw eventually fall.

At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups focused on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications at the Myanmar Strategy and Policy Institute, said that does not translate into common aspirations.

If the Tatmadaw were to fall, that could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario,” he said. “If we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful attempt to crack down on organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in the northern Shan, which lasted five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been displeased by this development, closing border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar cities and taking other measures in a so far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.