We have to start taking the BYU Cougars seriously.

I’m an idiot. I picked BYU to go 4-8 this season. The Cougars won’t finish worse than 8-5 this season, and that assumes they lose their final four regular-season games and their holiday bowl. Kalani Sitake’s team is playing with tremendous confidence against every opponent they face. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been the perfect quarterback to lead BYU to an undefeated 8-0.

Now that we’re about to enter the final month of the regular season, we’ve seen more than enough to make this once-bold claim: BYU is without a doubt a serious threat to make the expanded 12 team. College Football Playoffs. While it may have to be as a Big 12 champion, there is a path for the Cougars to enter a conference title fight with one loss. The Cougars have my full attention.

In fact, I have them in Iowa State as my projected Big 12 champion this week.

1. Oregon ducks (8-0) (projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) (Projected SEC Champion)
3. Clemson Tigers (6-1) (Projected SEC Champion)
4. BYU Cougars (8-0) (Big 12 Champion Project)
5. Texas Longhorns (7-1) (Projected SEC Runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) (Projected Big Ten Overall)
8. Notre Dame fighting the Irish (7-1) (Projected National Independent Overall)
9. Texas A&M Aggies (7-1) (overall projected SEC)
10. Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) (Projected Big Ten Overall)
11. Miami Hurricanes (8-0) (ACC Projected Runner-up)
12. Boise State Broncos (6-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And to be transparent, I still have the Cyclones as one of my top four teams this week.

BYU was a major topic of conversation on Monday’s episode of Null outputwhich will be out later today. Cody Williams and I had the Cougars ranked AQ in the Big 12. While there was some debate about how high the Cougars could climb, it will be difficult to get anywhere higher than the No. 4 seed in the upcoming 12-team playoffs . We recognize what they have done, but they have an easier path in.

Let’s look at the reality that BYU will be playing the No. 5 seed in the Fiesta Bowl at the end of December.

Besides being undefeated, there are a few things that work in BYU’s favor to make the playoffs. The first is that they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas State, who owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Colorado. BYU does not have to play the Buffaloes or Cyclones during the regular season. The Cougars’ last four games are at Utah, at home against Kansas, at Arizona State and at home against Houston.

The Holy War could be difficult, as could the date with fringe Big 12 contender Arizona State. However, the chances of the Cougars making it to Arlington undefeated are pretty good. Colorado has the next easiest schedule of the current Big 12 contenders with games at Texas Tech, at home against Utah, at Kansas and finishing the year at Oklahoma State. The Iowa State and Kansas State slates are more difficult.

Iowa State may be undefeated at 7-0, but it still has five games left. Those are at home against Texas Tech, at Kansas, at home against Cincinnati, at Utah and at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats have a road date in Houston, will host Arizona State, play at home against Cincinnati and then finish the regular season at Iowa State for Farmageddon. The point of all this is that BYU has the easiest path to Arlington of the other three.

The other big thing working in BYU’s favor is that the Cougars have the head-to-head win over ACC contender SMU in the non-conference. The Mustangs still have a ways to go to get to Charlotte, but the Ponies are a very strong 7-1 on the season and are undefeated in conference play. If you do the math or forecast a little, BYU should get to 11 wins pretty easily, which could put them in the playoffs.

According to ESPN’s Football Power IndexBYU has a 33.1 percent chance to win the Big 12 entering Week 10, which is third-best in the Power Four and eighth-best in the FBS. The Cougars also have a 58.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is the eleventh best brand in college footballand the best of the big 12. Iowa State has the 14th best chance of making the playoffs at 45.4 percent.

BYU entering a very navigable part of its schedule bodes very well for the Cougars this season.