Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players for the College Football Playoffs

Ohio State and Texas meet in the Cotton Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff semifinals.

The Buckeyes have become the favorites for the National Championship, unleashing their passing attack against teams like Tennessee and Oregon on their way to the semifinals where they will face Texas. The Longhorns avoided a near-implosion against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. The Longhorns’ overtime victory sets up a showdown between two of the most talented rosters in college football.

With Quinn Ewers ready to face the team that drafted him, can the Longhorns quarterback lead the team to an upset and a berth in the National Championship? What about Ohio State, which appears to be reaching its ceiling as the best team in college football?

Spread

money line

Total: 53.5 (More than -110/Less than -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ohio State

Will Howard: Howard has enjoyed a good season, but the Buckeyes’ talented offense revolved around their running game for much of the regular season. In a loss to Michigan that drew a lot of criticism, the Buckeyes’ inability to unlock Howard and the passing game was a big talking point. However, the group exploded in the postseason and Howard is playing the best he can. He has thrown for over 300 yards in every game and has completed nearly 75% of his passes with five touchdown passes. Ohio State has scored 40 or more in every game.

Texas

Quinn Ewers: Ewers was clutch down the stretch in the Peach Bowl, hitting Matthew Golden on fourth-and-long with the game on the line in overtime to extend the game and eventually advance to this game. However, it was far from a clean performance by Ewers, who suffered three sacks and had a critical interception. Can Ewers play a clean game against an elite Ohio State defense?

Ohio State’s market rating is rising as the team just demolished No. 1 overall seed Oregon, while Texas continues to show shaky play at times.

The Buckeyes are a heavy favorite in this one and it’s hard to overlook what the team has done in their last two games to justify this point spread.

The Longhorns’ defense is elite, but will surely be tested against the Buckeyes’ passing game that has leaned on its strength at wide receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The two wide receivers have combined for 23 receptions and 442 yards with five touchdowns in the two postseason games.

Texas’ secondary has proven to be elite, but the team hasn’t faced many elite passing games this season. Going back to the Longhorns’ season, the team hasn’t faced a top-20 passing game this season (Georgia is the closest at 22nd) and Ohio State ranks fourth in that metric. An argument can be made that OSU is given some of the general schematic changes it made in the postseason first.

Additionally, Texas enters a little exhausted after playing almost 38 minutes of defense against Arizona State and two overtimes. This team will need to be firing on all cylinders to keep up with the Buckeyes, and it’s fair to wonder if it can really keep up.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes defense did an excellent job of putting bodies in front of Dillon Gabriel as he dropped back, completely stymieing the Oregon offense throughout the first quarter and while building a 34-0 lead.

The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite all season, leading the country in many statistics, including the best success rate in the country. The Longhorns have shown they can dominate opposing defenses, but a big problem in this one will be that the team’s running game remains shaky.

Ohio State is in the top five in the country in EPA/Rush, closing out nearly every rushing game on its schedule in the run-first Big Ten, and Texas averaged less than three yards per carry against Arizona State. A lot of pressure will be on Ewers to find answers against a Buckeyes secondary that has been nailed against the pass, eighth in coverage grade by Pro Football Focus.

I like Ohio State in this case because of its ability to display such a high ceiling, although it’s fair to wonder if Texas can match it. However, we are paying a huge premium to bet on Ohio State against arguably the most talented roster left in the field other than the Buckeyes.

Instead, I’ll focus on the Ohio State team with their ability to push the ball downfield and find explosives, as well as possibly hand off to Ewers to create short field opportunities. Ewers has more turnover-worthy plays (19) than great throws (17).

PICK: Ohio State Team Total OVER 29.5 (-118)

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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