Why 2024 was the “most violent and dangerous” point in Philippine-China relations, and what’s next

The year 2024 marked the “most violent” and “most dangerous moment” for both Beijing and Manila in their long-running dispute over the South China Sea, according to several experts interviewed by This Week in Asia.

All agreed that China was the clear winner by gaining control over more landforms in the disputed waterway, but most added that Beijing had suffered “reputational damage” in the process.

The Philippines lost control of another area, Sabina Shoal, but was able to leverage multinational support and military aid to increase its defensive posture in the troubled waterway, they added.

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Chinese and Filipino ships collide in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law

Chinese and Filipino ships collide in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law

June 17: ‘the most severe friction’

The decisive moment of the dispute came on June 17, “marking an unprecedented escalation” and “the most dangerous moment,” said Professor Hu Bo, director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University and the South China Sea Strategic Situation Survey Initiative.

Hu said the Chinese Coast Guard “took legal measures” to intercept, inspect by boarding and expel six Philippine vessels attempting to deliver supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, a derelict Philippine warship stranded in Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal that China called Renai Jiao.

“Multiple collisions occurred between ships from both sides, leading to close clashes that far exceeded the intensity of previous clashes, making it the most serious friction in the South China Sea in the past decade.” posted July 12 on the SCSPI website weeks after the crash.

“This incident generated significant attention around the world,” Hu said.

This is the “most violent incident” between the two countries in the South China Sea, in which a Filipino sailor lost his thumb in the “physical scuffle,” said Lucio Blanco Pitlo, president of the Philippine Association of Chinese Studies.