Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders: who wins and why

YOU HAVE 3 KEYS TO BEAT THE COMMANDERS

Bears running against commanders running defense

Washington’s overall stance against the run isn’t terrible, and it obscures a truth about his performance. Only the clueless Carolina Panthers failed to reach 100 yards rushing against them on the ground. The Bengals rushed for only 124 because it was too easy for them to gain yards through the air. The same was true for the Buccaneers, who had 112. Arizona and Baltimore, with the threat of mobile quarterbacks, had busy days. Washington gives up over 4.0 yards per carry on all runs between the tackles. It’s pick and run there. D’Andre Swift likes to go outside, which is where it can be toughest, but losing Daron Payne undermined the run defense Washington has and the Bears should be able to move it with Swift or Roschon Johnson against a run defense overly reliant on 34-El one-year linebacker Bobby Wagner. Bears Edge

DOES DANIELS PLAY OR NOT? WHAT AN EXPERT WITNESS SAYS

Commanders running against Bears Run Defense

The real threat in this game for the Bears defense can be found here because it is easy to be out of pocket against Brian Robinson Jr. when either quarterback is capable of taking the ball away and running it as well. And Robinson is the type of speed and power running back who can inflict damage when the gap opens up. Baltimore’s top-ranked run defense beat the Commanders by holding them to 52 yards and forcing Daniels to beat them through the air. It is the safest way to play defense against any team. Last game the Bears started playing that way again in run defense, like they did much of last year. They held the Jaguars’ double-edged rushing attack to 68 yards. They will come out looking to stop the race again. No advantage.

Commanders Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

For all the excitement Daniels has produced, he still ranks 22nd in touchdown passes and they’re doing it mostly on short passes downfield at YAC. Daniels’ average expected passing yards, according to NextGen Stats, trails 23 other passers. That’s why his completion percentage is so high. A defense that attacks hard and recovers the ball out of zone should be able to combat this. And this perfectly describes the Bears’ coverage concept. Jaylon Johnson, Tremaine Edmunds and the Bears defense rank No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating against defense. They can be very disruptive and typically also maintain their discipline in the pass rush in a way to deter those who struggle, as evidenced by the 58 yards allowed this year. In fact, they may even do it to the point that they don’t get as many catches as they should. But they are getting enough pressure. An interesting point about this game is that a team that rarely turns the ball over, the Commanders (3 turnovers), faces one that thrives on taking the ball. The only uncertainty here is the two injuries to the Bears’ starters in the secondary, but that didn’t hurt their last game. Depth is something they have. No advantage.

Special teams

Austin Ekeler is averaging 32 yards per eight kick returns and is ideal for the new kick return rule because he is a running back who plays well in space. However, kickoffs don’t seem to mean much when everyone is forced to take touchbacks. Washington’s Olamide Zaccheaus has been a threat as a punt returner, but his 16.3-yard average is based on just six returns. Tory Taylor’s suspension time may cause problems for those returning. The Bears get into trouble here when they ask him to kick distance because they aren’t getting good enough coverage. Tress Way’s punt average is lower than other years (45.8) and he has four inside the 20. Taylor averages 3 more yards per punt than Way and has six more taken down inside the 20. Austin Seibert has been more He has accurate Cairo Santos on 19 of 20 field goals this year, but has only been allowed to attempt two from 50 yards or more. No advantage.

Training

Matt Eberflus is 2-1 coaching as a coordinator or head coach against teams with Kliff Kingsbury as a head coach or offensive coordinator, or with Dan Quinn as a defensive coordinator or head coach. The loss was to the Cowboys with Quinn as defensive coordinator in 2022, but they still scored 29 points. They just couldn’t stop Dallas’ offense. Kingsbury and Quinn have made more of a difference to Washington’s turnaround than any other factor, including their quarterback, whoever that may be. No advantage.

Final score: Bears 26, Commanders 20

No one has scored more than 21 points on the Bears defense in the last 12 games. The Bears give up a passer rating of 72.8. The Commanders defense gives up a passer rating of 107.4. Caleb Williams will face a much less intimidating challenge than Daniels. Or Mariota.

The line: Bears by 2 1/2 (Over/Under 43 1/2)

Bears on record SI in Bears games: 6-0 direct, 5-1 against the spread.

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