Hezbollah leader’s death marked ‘end of an era’: analyst

The assassination of powerful Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah a month ago marked a fundamental shift for the Iran-backed Lebanese movement and revived calls for it to hand over its vast arsenal of weapons.

“Nasrallah’s death marked the end of an era,” said analyst Sam Heller of the American think tank Century Foundation.

After decades at the helm, Nasrallah’s death “will necessarily mark a change for the organization,” Heller added.

Nasrallah’s influence extended far beyond his loyal Shia Muslim support base in Lebanon.

He was a key pillar in Iran’s “axis of resistance” against the United States and Israel, which includes other armed groups in the Middle East and Syria.

Israel dealt Hezbollah a seismic blow when it killed Nasrallah on September 27 in a massive airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut that has propelled the movement into a new era.

Hezbollah was already mired in a year of cross-border gunfire with Israel, which began in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas after the October 7, 2023 attack.

Last month, Israel stepped up attacks on Hezbollah strongholds, sending in ground forces as it killed member after member of the group’s top leaders.

Nasrallah, who had led the group since 1992, led operations against Israel for decades and acquired cult status among his supporters during the 2006 war.

According to Heller, “he was the main decision-maker in the organization when it rose to prominence in Lebanon and regionally.”

The Shura Council that governs the group has not yet appointed a successor.

Hashem Safieddine, a cleric candidate for the position, was assassinated by Israel just days after Nasrallah.

Local land

Hezbollah is now led by a group of leaders, according to its deputy director Naim Qassem.

Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati, have said their contact with the group has been cut off for weeks.

Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament who heads the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement, is tasked with speaking on behalf of the group, Qassem said in a recent speech.

Berri is believed to be pushing for a ceasefire, according to local media reports.

Hezbollah had long linked a ceasefire in Lebanon to an end to fighting in Gaza, a position it has yet to formally reverse.

Even as the group appears to be on the defensive, its fighters continue to fire dozens of rockets daily into Israel, some of which hit major cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv.

This week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in the coastal city of Caesarea.

The group says Israeli forces have been unable to take full control of any villages in Lebanon, after weeks of ground invasion.

Israeli forces operating in Lebanon “are facing very fierce resistance and are forced to withdraw under heavy blows,” said a source close to Hezbollah.

“The maximum depth the Israelis have reached is estimated to be about two kilometers (1.2 miles),” the source said, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Hezbollah, he said, has the advantage because it is fighting on its own turf, knowing what “trees and rocks” to hide behind.

‘Disarm’

Hezbollah is widely believed to be better armed than Lebanon’s national army and remains the only group that did not hand over its weapons after the 1975-1990 civil war.

After years of dominating political life in Lebanon, Hezbollah faces new calls from its critics inside the country to change.

Lebanese computer engineer Elie Jabbour told AFP he believes the only way forward is for Hezbollah to hand over its weapons.

“The war cannot end before Hezbollah is disarmed,” he said.

“When that happens, it will be able to join state institutions only as a political party,” the 27-year-old said.

A ceasefire in Lebanon has been linked to the implementation of a UN resolution that ended the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 states that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should be deployed in areas south of the Litani River, an area where Hezbollah has long operated.

But Lebanon is grappling with a protracted crisis, leaving the country rudderless until a president is elected after two rudderless years.

Many in Lebanon blame Hezbollah for blocking the vote.

Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces party and a former Hezbollah opponent, said any new president must not “leave any group or weapon outside the framework of the state.”

Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Thursday that only the state should bear arms.

But in a country long ravaged by division, attempts to “politically marginalize Hezbollah…will invite a violent response” from the group, Heller said.

“It will end in an intra-Lebanese conflict,” he added.