Hollywood is terrified of horror fatigue at the box office in 2025. Why?

In 2022, Parker Finn Smile became one of the most profitable films of the year, grossing over $217 million on a production budget of $17 million. Paramount quickly greenlit a sequel, a no-brainer in an era where horror It’s one of the only safe bets left in the world. Lockers. Studios embarked on a horror arms race, securing talent in first-look deals, hiring executives to focus on the genre, and figuring out how to get more product into theaters.

Two years later, Smile 2 It arrived over the weekend of October 18-20 in a completely different landscape, where the market has become increasingly oversaturated, setting off alarm bells at major and independent studios.

The good received Smile The sequel took on the second weekend of Cineverse’s unrated indie slasher sensation. Terrorist 3which had opened with a surprisingly better-than-expected $18.9 million the previous week (see opposite page).

Paramount was confident that Smile 2 would equal or surpass the opening of the first film, and while it was successful with $23 million, there is no doubt that Terrorist 3 ate up his business. In its second outing, the latter fell only 51 percent to $9.3 million.

The beauty of horror is that films can be made faster and cheaper than other genres, generating huge profits. But as the marquee becomes flooded with more and more options, the audience becomes increasingly tired.

“This year there are around 26 horror releases. And there are already 18 next year,” says a senior studio executive, who predicts more will be added to the 2025 schedule. “You would like to have a break in the middle. You don’t want the audience to be satiated when you arrive.”

Some of the high-profile deals for 2025 include Barbarian producer BoulderLight Buddy (January 10); Leigh Whannell werewolf (January 17); Oz Perkins long legs keep track the monkey (February 21); Dakota Fanning starring Vicious (February 28); Ryan Coogler sinners (March 7); video game adaptation Until dawn (April 25); M3GAN 2.0 (June 27); Sierra XI (September 26); The black phone 2 (October 17); and Five nights at Freddy’s 2 (December 5).

Terrorist 3 it was not SmileThe only competition. With Halloween approaching, there were five other new horror offerings over the weekend of October 18-20, though all were moderate or limited releases, including Fathom Events’ October 20 re-release of an unrated version of Sierra X.

Lionsgate Saw The franchise ushered in the era of torture porn, which seems to be enjoying a resurgence based on Terrorist 3. (A fact little discussed: the unclassified Terrorist 2 actually opened against the first Smilebut it only reserved about 770 theaters, and most cinemas only offered a late-night showing and prohibited showings on Sundays. It didn’t even gross $1 million upon its release, but it ended up gaining traction and became a hit.)

For every movie like Smile and terrifyingThere have been high-profile mistakes in the genre lately. Blumhouse and Miramax were seriously injured when The exorcist: believer went off in October 2023, ending hopes for a trilogy. Blumhouse Five nights at Freddy’s It was a box office victory that same month, which softened the blow.

“Suddenly, starting in the mid-2010s, it seemed as if audiences had suddenly decided that comedies and awards movies were better watched at home. And now we sit back and wonder if the once foolproof horror genre is no longer as viable theatrically,” says Paul Dergarabedian, chief box office analyst at Comscore. “The offers for early 2023: M3GAN, cocaine bear, Scream VI and The rise of the evil dead — grossed $585 million worldwide on a combined budget of nearly $100 million. So far, the top horror titles of 2024 that didn’t work: Night swimming, Imaginary, Late night with the devil, Immaculate, The first omen and abigail – should finish their combined careers with $235 million on a combined budget close to $100 million.”

This story appeared in the October 23 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.