US voters brace for ‘dangerous time’ as election looms

Issued on: 10/26/2024 – 08:39

3 minutes

Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced Joe Biden, as the Democratic candidate, faces Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump, who has been busy energizing his supporters with populist rhetoric.

The outcome of the election will influence the political landscape far beyond the borders of the United States.

“Just under 2 percent of the world’s population has the right to go to the polls in November to decide who will be the next president of the United States,” said Misha Glenny, chancellor of the Vienna Institute of Human Sciences.

He adds that with an average voter turnout of 60 percent in US presidential elections since 2004, around 96 million people will make a decision with far-reaching consequences for the remaining eight billion around the world.

The election has serious implications for US foreign policy.

“We are in an incredibly dangerous moment, no matter who wins the election,” says David Vine, political anthropologist and author of United States at war.

“The choice between Harris and Trump includes the choice between a future in which the United States remains an empire with bases and troops surrounding the world and an empire that is involved in multiple wars,” he added.

Internal concerns

As the world watches, American voters are focused on issues like immigration, education and the economy. Rising prices are hitting households hard, with 56 percent of Americans reporting financial hardship, compared to earlier this year.

Surveys, such as those of Bank investigationThey show that voters trust Trump more on economic issues than Harris, which could hurt her candidacy.

Politically, there are fears of authoritarianism, especially if Trump wins a second term.

This feeling has led to what Insider business information calls the “great Trump diaspora“, as some would consider leaving the country entirely if their preferred candidate lost.

TO Scripps News/Ipsos Poll This week found that 62 percent of people think violence after Election Day is “very likely” or “somewhat likely,” with fears of unrest shared by 59 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of the Democrats.

Harris has a slight lead in the polls, but no more than 3 percent, and her lead has been narrowing in recent days.

Abortion rights have become a key concern for voters, with 8 percent identifying it as a top issue, the highest percentage recorded by Gallup. LGBTQ+ rights, particularly of transgender people, are also a focus, with many fearing their safety could be at risk depending on the outcome of the election.

He Civil Liberties Union reported that during Trump’s previous term, his administration “began a sustained effort to erase protections for LGBTQ people.”

Doubts about the electoral college

Another point of concern is the American electoral system itself. Established in the 18th century, it has 538 electors who formally vote for the president based on their state’s popular vote. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, but this system does not always align with the national popular vote.

“Theoretically, you could win the Electoral College with about 35 percent of the total popular vote,” said Mark Herman Schwarz, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, explaining that the system disproportionately favors rural states with smaller populations.

Abolishing the Electoral College would be difficult, since it is enshrined in the constitution and would require the approval of two-thirds of Congress and at least 38 states.

“The only way I could see a change is if Republicans consistently lost elections to Democrats, who won fewer popular votes but more electoral college votes,” Schwarz said, although he sees this as unlikely given the advantages of the current system for Republicans.