Does the EU have anyone who can talk to Donald Trump? – DW – 10/26/2024

As the United States prepares to vote on November 5, there is anxiety in the European Union about Donald Trump’s possible return to power and how it could affect the bloc’s political and security landscape.

Several EU interlocutors have been proposed in case Trump returns to the White House, although not all have the same agenda.

Mark Rutte, NATO’s new secretary general, is the consensus choice to address security challenges and talk to Trump. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish President Andrzej Duda have also positioned themselves as like-minded Trump allies in Europe.

Mark Rutte: Trump’s pro-European whisperer

At least three senior NATO sources, who could not be cited by name, told DW that Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, developed a relationship with Trump during the president’s first term and was chosen in part to lead the alliance. defense in preparation. for Trump’s return.

Camille Grand, a defense and security policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former deputy secretary general of NATO, said Rutte “is known for having been able to engage with the president of the United States and stand firm when necessary” in bilateral interactions. and during NATO Summits.

In 2018, Rutte rescued the alliance from a tense situation at NATO headquarters when Trump threatened that the United States would go its own way if European governments did not increase their defense spending. Rutte gently reminded the president that defense spending was increasing, all thanks to him.

Ian Lesser, who heads the Brussels office of the US German Marshall Fund (GMF), said that if Trump were to win, Rutte could give a “better message on burden sharing”, as 23 of the 32 countries in the NATO Member countries, including France and Germany, are expected to meet or exceed the target of spending 2% of their GDP on defense this year.

In exchange, Rutte would seek guarantees on aid to Ukraine and the continuity of the American presence in NATO.

Trump not only threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine and encouraged Russia to do “whatever the hell” it wants with allied nations; he could even withdraw the United States from NATO, according to his former national security adviser, John Bolton.

“Rutte will look for predictability from Washington, especially in the context of the Russia war,” Lesser said.

Viktor Orban: ideological ally, but not “strategic interlocutor”

Rutte faces competition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who met Trump in July on a solo “peace mission” after visits to Beijing, kyiv and Moscow, presenting himself as an EU facilitator to end the Russia’s war in Ukraine.

And, when Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris said in September that world leaders were “laughing” at the former president, Trump cited his close ties to Orban, hailing him as a strong, tough and smart prime minister.

Zsuzsanna Vegh, an analyst focused on Central European countries at the GMF, said Orban’s approach to Trump was mainly to elevate his own position and build his image as an internationally relevant leader.

“Trump’s victory could also encourage Orban to continue down the path of internal autocratization,” Vegh said, and “further undermine the credibility of the EU as a community of democracies.”

Experts believe Orban’s anti-immigrant and anti-LGBTQ+ policies have endeared him to Trump’s MAGA support base. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former senior adviser, has even referred to the Hungarian leader as “Trump before Trump.”

As Orban is known to be a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has opposed EU support for Ukraine, some observers fear he could whisper Kremlin thinking into Trump’s ears.

“I doubt President Putin needs Prime Minister Orban to lobby for him in the White House,” Vegh said. “That said, his calls for a ceasefire and negotiations under the current circumstances, which Orban no doubt shares with his American contacts, certainly also serve Russia’s interests.”

While Orban may be a “like-minded ally” for Trump, Lesser said, Rutte is a “strategic interlocutor” who speaks on behalf of NATO’s security concerns and should have more influence.

Duda and Meloni: ideologically in tune, but safety first

There are other potential EU interlocutors who are ideologically more similar to Trump and Orban on issues such as immigration, but strategically in tune with Rutte.

President Andrzej Duda of the Polish nationalist Law and Justice party met with Trump in April and reportedly convinced him to allow Republicans to unlock a $60 billion (€55.5 billion) aid package for Ukraine in Congress. of the United States.

“Given Poland’s strategic position on NATO’s eastern flank, maintaining strong relations with the United States is considered vital for national security, regardless of political affiliations,” Maciej Tyburski of the Warsaw Institute think tank wrote to DW. .

“While it is true that the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) can find ideological alignment with the Republican leadership in the United States, including Trump, the importance of US-Poland relations has historically been recognized across the political spectrum. “Tyburski wrote.

Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has also been presented by her colleagues as the perfect EU partner should Trump win, and some members of her far-right Brothers of Italy party have previously met with the former president.

Antonio Giordano, a Brethren of Italy lawmaker who attended the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July, told the Financial times in September that Meloni would be Trump’s “natural interlocutor” if he “wants to understand how to better deal with Europe.”

Although Meloni herself has not endorsed any candidate in the US elections, some observers have pointed to her growing ties to Elon Musk, a businessman close to Trump, including several meetings with the billionaire in 2023, as a sign of her preference for the former -president. Filippo Simonelli, a junior researcher at the Institute of International Affairs, said Meloni could try to position himself as a link between the US and EU institutions.

“Meloni (can) try to be the link between the right of the European political scene and the von der Leyen Commission, which is already looking to the right more than ever and therefore wants to try to benefit as much as possible from this shifting balance,” he said.

But an ideological alignment with Trump does not mean that Meloni has taken his eye off the threat from Russia. “She is a committed Atlanticist,” Lesser said. Meloni has often expressed support for Ukraine and has therefore found respectability in Brussels, and both Duda and Meloni appreciate the value of NATO and collective defense for Europe.

Trump could galvanize the European far right

Some political experts fear that if individual politicians, particularly from far-right groups, align with Trump on social and political issues and end up having more influence over the US president, this could galvanize and normalize the far-right movement within the US. European Union. .

Comfort Ero, head of the International Crisis Group think tank, noted in a recent article that a second Trump administration could boost “the morale of far-right European politicians working against a stronger, more integrated Europe.”

Trump’s attempts to negotiate bilaterally with EU and NATO members, as he often did during his first term, could also potentially weaken those institutions. “The unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, his transactional approach and his disdain for multilateralism would make it more difficult for a large bureaucracy with 27 EU member states to adjust,” Ero wrote. “European policymakers worry that a second Trump presidency could test their unity.”

“Orban, Meloni and Duda are more aligned with Trump, at least on domestic issues, and they will certainly be tempted to take advantage of that connection,” said Grand, the former NATO official. “This fragmentation of the European approach to a possible Trump administration is not useful for European interests or for NATO, since the bilateralization of the security relationship with the United States could undermine NATO in the long term.”

Edited by: Martín Kuebler