Harris has college-educated voters

College-educated voters have leaned toward the Democratic Party over recent election cycles. Trump, the Republican presidential candidate for the third consecutive election, has gained support among black men, Latinos and voters without a college education.

But Democratic strategists say Americans with college degrees, who vote and donate in large numbers, could help Harris win the presidency.

“They are incredibly reliable voters,” said Harris campaign pollster Molly Murphy, adding that Harris’ warnings about Trump particularly appeal to this group. “These messages – warning of the dangers of Trump’s second term when it comes to our national security, and even our internal security, with the use of the military as a weapon against American citizens – are things that resonate with educated voters. university, but it’s not just those voters.”

Polls show Harris and Trump in a static, deadlocked race just 10 days before Election Day. The candidates are fighting for a small share of undecided voters in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where polls show the two are statistically tied.

Part of Harris’ campaign strategy in the final stretch of the election is to increase turnout among college-educated women, who have proven to be a key base of Democratic voters in recent elections, particularly in the 2022 midterms. when Democrats exceeded expectations. But the campaign also believes that a group of college-educated men are still persuadable. Murphy said polls show the dangers of a Trump presidency remain a top concern for that group, they are less likely to be affiliated with a single political party and participate late in the political process.

Harris, who has run a historically compressed campaign since replacing Biden atop the Democratic ticket less than four months ago, spent the first weeks of the campaign talking about pocketbook issues and abortion and focusing on introducing herself to voters. who knew little. about her.

But his pivot in the final weeks of the campaign to spend most of his time warning that Trump is unhinged and unfit for the presidency is based on internal polling that shows such messages could help boost turnout among undecided voters. , especially those with college degrees. As part of that effort, he has highlighted former Trump officials, including his former chief of staff John F. Kelly, warning of the dangers he poses to the nation. Murphy said the campaign’s focus on Trump is also prominent among other voter groups, including voters without college degrees, but that those groups also care about the economy, health care and other issues.

In all national polls, Harris leads by 19 percentage points among college graduates, slightly above President Joe Biden’s 17-point margin in exit polls and comparable sources in 2020. Among non-college-educated voters, Trump leads by nine points, slightly higher than its five-point margin in 2020.

Some Democrats have been concerned about Harris’ numbers with other key voter groups that helped propel Barack Obama and Biden to the Oval Office. Harris has a 24-point lead among nonwhite voters, much smaller than Biden’s 47-point lead in 2020. Polls breaking down Black and Hispanic voters find Harris leading by an average of 59 points, compared to Biden winning the group by 81. points in post-election sources. And Harris has a narrow five-point lead among Hispanic voters, compared to Biden’s 29-point lead.

In 2020, college graduates represented 35 percent of voting-age citizens, but 40 percent of registered voters and 42 percent of general election voters, according to the Office of the Census. Education is also one of the strongest predictors of turnout: College graduates turn out to vote at much higher rates than those with high school diplomas or less.

Democrats’ growing strength among college-educated voters, who tend to have higher incomes than people without college degrees, also means Democrats can raise more money in elections down the ballot, strategists said.

“The migration of higher-income and more educated voters into the Democratic Party will not only be very significant in terms of voters in the battleground states. Their money is helping to power all of our campaigns across the country,” said Simon Rosenberg, a top Democratic Party operative. “This is one of the most important things that has happened in American politics in recent years, because Democrats are not used to living in a world where we dramatically outspend Republicans.”

Harris will deliver what she considers her final argument to the American people on Tuesday in a speech from the Ellipse in Washington, the site where Trump spoke just before the Jan. 6 riot. Harris’ event, which the campaign hopes will make it through the news cycle more than visiting another battleground state, also aims to appeal to fears college voters and others have about a second Trump term, campaign officials said. .

On January 6, 2021, Trump held a rally at the Ellipse, where he urged his supporters to march to the US Capitol as Congress finalized the results of the presidential election. In his speech, Trump told the crowd to “fight” for him and to “peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” A mob later stormed the building, delaying the work of Congress. More than 1,400 people have been charged federally in connection with the attack.

Harris’ speech will focus on more than just Trump, according to a campaign official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to preview comments that are not yet final. The vice president will also present a contrast between what her first term as president could be like and what the former president’s second term could bring. She plans to position herself herself as a defender of national security and president of all Americans and argues that Trump represents a unique danger to the country.

In recent weeks, Harris has held campaign events in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-Wis.). Cheney, who has endorsed the vice president (the first time, she said, she has endorsed a Democrat) and has been working to persuade other Republicans to cross party lines and vote for Harris.

“What we’re seeing is a seismic shift for Republicans: College-educated voters, especially white voters with degrees, have been trusted by Republicans for decades, but now they’re turning away from Trump and his toxicity,” said Jim Messina. , who managed Obama’s 2012 campaign, said in a statement. “These are not casual voters; “These are people who show up in every election and the numbers tell the story.”

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Scott Clement contributed to this report.