North Korean troops in Russia: a dangerous new phase in the Ukrainian war

Liana Fix is ​​a Europe Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Benjamin Harris is a CFR research associate for European and US foreign policy.

What is the North Korean military doing in the war between Russia and Ukraine?

North Korea has already been helping Russia maintain its firepower on the battlefield, providing it with millions of artillery shells as well as rockets and missiles. The United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) confirmed this week that at least three thousand North Korean soldiers were sent to the Russian Far East for training, apparently to participate in Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Reportedly, between ten thousand and twelve thousand of North Korea’s elite special forces, known as the “Storm Corps,” could be sent or pledged to Russia.

South Korean intelligence informs that These forces have been issued false passports and uniforms to disguise themselves as members of Russian forces, indicating that neither Russia nor North Korea are currently willing to publicly recognize these troops as “cobelligerents.”

South Korea and Ukraine affirm that North Korean forces are being sent to recapture the Kursk region of western Russia from Ukrainian forces after kyiv’s surprise autumn incursion. Until now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to use Russian recruits (an unpopular move in the country) for this operation.

What does this say about the growing relationship between North Korea and Russia?

In June 2024, the two countries signed a mutual defense pact that technically obligates them to defend each other from invasions. Some scholars predicted that they could use a Ukrainian incursion into Russia (like the Kursk offensive). as a pretext to activate the pact, but their decision to obfuscate the identities of the North Koreans indicates that they are not doing so yet.

Russia is currently gaining ground on the battlefield and is therefore unlikely to act out of desperation by deploying North Korean soldiers. Rather, Putin is likely taking this step based on tactical considerations. To help Russia retake Kursk, the North Korean contingent It may also allow Putin to concentrate Russian forces in his advance in eastern Ukraine, the main front where Russia has constantly been, yes slowlymoving forward. Heading into the winter season, these trends seem likely to accelerate as the Ukrainian energy crisis deepens and the US elections could alter Western support for Ukraine.

At a strategic level, this deployment demonstrates a new and ominous level of security cooperation between two actors in the so-called “axis of unrest”, formed by China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. In exchange for its support for Russia, North Korea most likely wants more military and economic aid and is eager for its elite forces to gain significant combat experience, which they have not had in decades and which will help modernize their army. One worrying possibility is that the June pact opened the door for Russia to provide support to North Korea for its nuclear and space programs, which would violate United Nations sanctions.

What are the consequences for Ukraine and its Western supporters?

North Korea’s actions mark a dangerous and further globalization of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which will likely bring South Korea and other Indo-Pacific allies closer to the European theater. If North Korea and Russia increase their military cooperation, South Korea is likely to expand its support for Ukraine, including potentially lethal aid, and become more closely involved in the network of alliances the United States is cultivating in the Indo-Pacific.

In material terms, North Korea’s military is largely concentrated against South Korea, meaning that many of its capabilities are not transferable to the distant battlefields of Russia and Ukraine. More worrying and problematic is the enormous economic and military support that North Korea and China provide to Russia. North Korea sent eight million projectiles to Ukraine last year, as well as dozens of short-range missiles, which will do much more to keep the Russian war machine afloat than a few thousand soldiers. Western supporters of Ukraine, on the other hand, have had difficulty matching this supply of ammunition and weapons.

How does China view these developments?

China has made repeated attempts to debunk Western fears about its alleged collusion with North Korea and Russia. On the same day that Washington confirmed that Pyongyang troops were in Russia, the Chinese embassy in Washington issued a statement That ruled out the notion of an “axis of unrest,” echoing previous statements by Chinese officials.

However, unless China more explicitly distances itself from North Korea-Russia cooperation, the West’s perception of China as an enabler of the Ukraine war and a growing geopolitical threat will only harden. This could further undermine Beijing’s efforts to improve its trade relations with the European Union (EU). Just a few weeks ago, the EU expressed its growing anger with China and agreed to impose heavy tariffs on electric vehicles.

China is also concerned that a deepening of ties between North Korea and Russia could erode its influence over Pyongyang. China and North Korea renewed a mutual defense treaty in 2021, and China has so far been North Korea’s most important partner in economic aid.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the authors. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan organization, think tank, and publisher and takes no institutional positions on policy issues.