Trump’s health and ours | The New Yorker

A couple of weeks ago, Donald Trump turned in one of his strangest performances in a campaign that featured no shortage of odders, part of a series of oddities that may or may not constitute a surprise in October, but have certainly contributed to a surprising October. . “Who the hell wants to hear questions?” he shouted at a Pennsylvania town hall, after two attendees suffered medical emergencies. He then wandered the stage for nearly forty minutes, swaying to the music on his playlist: “Ave Maria,” “YMCA,” “Hallelujah.”

Trump has always given off 25th Amendment vibes. But even by that standard, his behavior has become disturbingly strange, raising new questions about his mental fitness and emotional stability. In recent weeks, he has said that Haitian immigrants should be deported “back to Venezuela,” he has renamed the January 6 insurrection a “day of love,” he has reflected on the size of Arnold Palmer’s genitals, and he has criticized Abraham Lincoln for not having “established himself.” the Civil War (although he admitted that Lincoln was “probably” a great president). Trump is also increasingly canceling interviews, reportedly due to exhaustion; has held less than a quarter as many rallies in 2024 as in 2016.

Over time, Trump’s language has become angrier, simpler, less focused, more violent and more profane. According to the TimesHis speeches at rallies are, on average, about twice as long as in 2016, and he swears almost seventy percent more often, a trait that may be associated with age-related disinhibition. The health news site STAT has reported that since Trump left office, his use of binary and extreme linguistic constructions such as “always” and “never,” which can also be a sign of cognitive decline or depression, has increased by about sixty percent. and that his speech now contains much more negative and retrospective language. Trump himself has felt compelled to address his digressive ramblings. “I do the weaving,” she said recently. “I’ll talk about like nine different things, and they all come together brilliantly.” He added: “English teachers say, ‘That’s the most brilliant thing I’ve ever seen.’ “

Joe Biden’s shortcomings became evident in part because he has always behaved like a normal politician. But Trump’s behavior has been so aberrant for so long that separating genuine deterioration from routine volatility is no easy task: On what basis are swings judged in something unprecedented in public life? In the first half of this year, major American newspapers published dozens more articles on Biden’s mental acuity than on Trump’s in the last nine months, and in the end, the Democratic leadership convinced Biden to take a stand. side to form coalition and country. Republican leaders, faced with the collapse of their own candidate, have only reaffirmed their loyalty.

However, a growing number of Americans appear to harbor doubts about Trump’s age and cognitive abilities. In Wisconsin, according to Marquette Law School polls, more than six in ten voters say Trump is too old to be president; A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that, nationally, about half of independents say they don’t have the mental acuity for the job. The question is whether, after everything Trump has said and done (slandering the military, fawning over dictators, boasting about sexual assault, refusing to accept the election results), the specter of a man who now has even less control of his powers could be what moves Trump. voters.

The 2024 campaign has been unusual both for its intense focus on the candidates’ health and its relative lack of attention to the people’s health. Whether due to pandemic fatigue or tired slogans about repealing Obamacare and Medicare for All, health care has been less central in this election than in any other in a generation. Bill Clinton fought for universal health care and George W. Bush ensured prescription drug coverage for seniors. Barack Obama oversaw the passage of the Affordable Care Act, and Trump nearly orchestrated its demise. This year, a transformation of the health care system does not appear to be in sight (despite Trump’s “concept plans”), but there is something more fundamental on the ballot: a system of government that makes good health possible.

Not long after the American Revolution, Benjamin Rush, a physician and signer of the Declaration of Independence, proposed a link between healthy politics and healthy people. Rush argued that there is an “indissoluble union between moral, political, and physical happiness” and that “elective and representative governments are most favorable” to both individual and social well-being. His claim seems to have been confirmed: research increasingly supports a salutary effect of democratic governance.

A recent study in He Lancetled by Thomas Bollyky, global health chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that, for many health outcomes, the strength of a country’s democracy may matter more than the size of its economy. On average, nations that moved from autocracy to democracy experienced almost immediate improvements (within a decade, life expectancy increased by more than two years) and those that moved from democracy to autocracy experienced the opposite. Bollyky estimates that, in the decades between the fall of the Soviet Union and Trump’s descent down the golden escalator, democracy helped prevent some sixteen million deaths from cardiovascular disease alone.

Democratic governments are accountable to the people, and people like to be healthy. Health care is what economists call a higher good, meaning that as societies get richer they want more of it. As a result, democracies spend more on health than autocracies and are likely to preserve access to health care even when the economy collapses. Meanwhile, a free press keeps people informed; the rule of law drives innovation by curbing corruption and protecting intellectual property; and independent agencies verify energy and implement regulations to promote clean water, breathable air and safe food.

The real danger of a second Trump term is not that Trump is a man in decline. The thing is, this time, he would be surrounded by a cast of characters who seek to reify, not stop, his worst impulses. John Kelly, Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, has argued that Trump is “certainly an authoritarian”; Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that Trump is “fascist to the core.” Healthy democracy, like good health, requires adherence to a particular set of norms and behaviors, and the price of abandonment is not just sick political systems but sick people. In both cases, it is better to strive for prevention than to wait for resuscitation.