Texas’s energy demand can exceed the offer in 2026, but experts warn against panic

(The Texas Triune) – The Texas main network operator on Thursday predicted that the state’s growing energy demand could overcome its available energy supply from the summer of 2026.

In a report that describes the supply and potential demand in the next five years, the Texas Electrical Reliability Council said that it is possible that the network does not have enough energy to meet the maximum demand during summer and winter seasons from the Next year.

But that was the most serious of the stages that Ercot described. Others show that the supply would be tight, but they would remain in front of the demand. And some experts warned that the assumptions that Ercot used were defective and more pessimistic than probably happens.

The parameters in the report “better represent the performance of the resources of the network and the dynamic nature of the Ercot grid,” Ercot said The report. “But it is important to keep in mind that all scenarios in this report have a certain level of uncertainty that can alter the results of adaptation of long -term resources, and these forecasts will change over time depending on a variety of factors.”

Ercot estimates that The demand for power will almost double By 2030, largely due to population growth, the most extreme climate and the increase of large users, such as cryptographic mines, data centers and oil and gas electrifying operations.

The grid operator sharply increased its prediction of the amount of energy demand in the coming years after the state legislature approved a law in 2023 that changed the way Ercot prognostic that they demand.

Previously, Ercot could only tell the advanced users who had signed connection agreements with a utility. The new law allowed Ercot to include the potential users of advances without a signed agreement, if the utility considered that the project would probably connect to the network.

But judging if the big users will really be built in Texas is difficult, experts said, since companies can send duplicate applications to connect their projects in different places. This legislative session is expected that legislators instruct regulators to reaffirm their demand prognosis requesting more information from projects that seek to plug the Texas network.

Ercot’s most terrible prediction on Thursday said the energy supply would fall 6.2% less than the maximum summer demand in 2026. The gap would continue to expand to 32.4% for the summer of 2029, with winter seasons seeing a slightly smaller shortage during the same time.

Ercot also modeled alternative scenarios that reflect a slower demand growth and a faster construction of the new generation, including 9,720 megawatts of projects financed by the Texas Energy Fund -A loan program funded by taxpayers of $ 10 billion aimed at encouraging the development of new plant fed plants.

In those scenarios, Ercot maintained sufficient supply to meet demand. But the model assumed that Texas Energy Fund projects would not experience any delay, unlike typical projects.

Ercot’s CEO, Pablo Vegas, said the economic growth of the State shows that “the action is needed today to guarantee long -term reliability and affordability.”

Some experts argued that the report was based on an assumption of mass growth of demand that, they said, it was unlikely to happen.

“The numbers look so bad due to the 52 GW assumption of new load that comes online in four years,” said Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist at the University of Texas in Austin, in a message. “I just don’t think so much new load can enter as fast, so I don’t think things are as bad as the report would indicate.”

Doug Lewin, an energy consultant, described Ercot’s assumptions “irredimably defective” and “unnecessarily panic induces.”

Michael Jewell, an energy lawyer and expert, said the report represented a snapshot that did not capture how large energy users responded to high energy prices by reducing use. He added that ERCOT estimates undervalued the growing solar and wind energy resources of the state.

“When you essentially press the amount of generation and increase the amount of load, it will show a generation deficiency to meet demand,” Jewell said.

Texas increased its energy supply by 35% in the last four years, said Governor Greg Abbott in his speech on the state of the state this month. According to Lewin, more than 90% of that came from solar energy, wind and batteries.

Experts emphasized the need to continue developing all kinds of energy resources in Texas, referring to a series of bills proposed in the legislature that could hinder the expansion of solar and wind energy.

“We are going to need all the megawatts that we can obtain, from each generation resource that we can obtain,” said Jewell. “Legislative proposals that would discourage the continuous development of each resource, that is anti-energy.”

Ercot said he would continue working on solutions to reinforce his supply margins, improving battery storage, working with large energy users that can quickly reduce their use during narrow network conditions and support Texas Energy Fund projects, among other measures .

“Ercot expects to work in short and long term solutions with the Texas Legislature (the State Public Services Commission) and interested parties to continue strengthening the reliability and resistance of the Texas Electricity Network,” Vegas said.

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